WSJ: Two Cyclones Hit Days Apart. Can Scientists Prove Climate Change Caused Them?
September 03, 2023 Two devastating cyclones hit Vanuatu consecutively, days apart, earlier this year. While the region has been prone to unpredictable and extreme weather, locals say this level of destruction was a first time occurrence and were left with irreversible damages. Scientists are finding it challenging to prove cause and effect of sudden climate disasters as broader trends still make it difficult to predict when they will happen and how they occurred. The United Nations is attempting to combat the adversity of isolated disasters and their irreversible impact on developing communities i.e. the ‘loss-and-damage’ fund. The process for implementing this fund is still under discussion, especially as it may deter foreign investors from further capital investment risk in developing countries. Several researchers continue their attempts to attribute isolated natural disasters to broader trends in climate change globally. Hurricane Idalia in the US and the flooding in Pakistan caused by heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere and warmer ocean waters, respectively, are examples referenced in the article. Unfortunately, researchers are constrained by their access to datasets to analyze trends in developing countries; while being under pressure to help these counties to qualify for loss-and-damage funding. The natural disasters in Vanuatu and surrounding coastal nations exemplify the need for developing nations to have this fall back fund as they lead to displaced people, rising fresh food costs, starvation, and permanently destroyed infrastructure/GDP. Their efforts to scientifically prove that natural disasters are a result of climate change have been supported by the United Nations General Assembly. In addition, The United States foreign policy also continues to embed climate financing in its DNA as the largest Greenhouse gas emitter in the world. Developing countries are eager to prove cause and effect so the burden of catastrophic climate events can be shared and reparations can be sought. One conjecture for Vanuatu being prone to future extreme weather catastrophes is that the South Pacific Convergence zone is dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. However, it will still be challenging to predict the frequency of such events will increase as a result of the shifting climate. Nevertheless, implementing these financing initiatives is a top priority for the community to preserve itself.