Suburban Housing And Urban Affordability: Evidence From Residential Vacancy Chains
April 30, 2024 by The paper explores the link between different housing submarkets through residential vacancy chains, which are a series of moves across housing units initiated by the construction of new housing. The study uses U.S. population data to compare vacancies created by new suburban single-family homes and new urban multifamily housing. The findings reveal that vacancy chains are short, with 90% ending within three rounds of moves, and each new suburban home leads to only .015 moves in low-income urban neighborhoods. A simulation exercise shows that the geographic distribution of moves created by vacancy chains correlates with the geographic distribution of welfare and price effects. The study concludes that new suburban housing supply has little effect on urban housing affordability or on the welfare of low-income urban households.