This article highlights the trend of declining NOI and restrained lending environment in the US.  For rental housing development to continue to be attractive, market rents would need to keep increasing drastically like 2021-2022.  As of November 2023, serious delinquency rates on Fannie Mae single-family loans have equaled those on multifamily loans for the first time, signaling potential challenges in the multifamily market. Amid rising interest rates and a weakening multifamily investment environment, as indicated by the falling Apartment Investment Market Index (AIMI), there is an emerging trend of declining delinquency on rates on one to four family homes coupled with rising delinquency rates on multifamily loans. These developments suggest a near-term struggle for the 5+ unit multifamily market, with implications for property values, rents, and the broader financial system.  This includes a decline in multifamily loans with higher vacancies in the new supply of 5+ multifamily buildings from 2020-2023.

https://www.urban.org/research/publication/housing-finance-glance-monthly-chartbook-november-2023