Source: Journal of Housing Studies

Date Published: 09.09.2025

Link: Estimating a housing Phillips curve: Evidence from Norway

Using four Norwegian cities, Oslo, Bergen, Trondheim, and Stavanger as a case study, the research examines housing market data and public records to describe the relationship between housing price changes and market scarcity. The author adapts the Phillips Curve framework, which theorizes the relationship between unemployment and the rate of subsequent wage inflation, to the housing market. In accordance with the Phillips Curve, the authors find a negative association between high housing price growth and lower unsold rates. In Oslo, the change in price preceded the change in unsold rates. The study also demonstrates that when homeowners “buy-first,” they fuel stronger price growth, whereas when homeowners “sell-first,” price growth in the market slows – both decisions based upon expected house price appreciation and financing costs, such as bank loan approval.