DOES GENTRIFICATION DISPLACE POOR CHILDREN? NEW EVIDENCE FROM NEW YORK CITY MEDICAID DATA
This research provides new insights into the residential mobility of low-income children in New York City’s gentrifying neighborhoods. Consistent with previous studies, we find no significant increase in displacement rates, though moving children often relocate farther away, likely due to the need for more affordable options. Residing in subsidized housing reduces the likelihood of moving, but gentrification’s impact on mobility is similar for children in both subsidized and market-rate housing. Unlike past research, we observe that children in gentrifying neighborhoods experience greater reductions in neighborhood poverty compared to those in persistently low-SES areas, benefiting from rising neighborhood incomes if they stay. However, children who move during the seven-year period show no difference in poverty rate changes between gentrifying and persistently low-SES neighborhoods. Surprisingly, children remaining in gentrifying areas see a slight decline in their local elementary school’s performance, suggesting that initial improvements in school quality may be lacking. New York City’s robust tenant protections and rent stabilization, which regulate a significant portion of rental units, influence these dynamics, although tenants in stabilized units are still affected by market pressures. Our findings, consistent across all boroughs, indicate that while low-income renters often move due to affordability issues, there is no strong evidence that gentrification exacerbates their vulnerability. High mobility rates are common among low-income children, regardless of neighborhood gentrification. However, our research does not address the long-term economic diversity of gentrifying neighborhoods, and preserving this diversity may require policies to ensure pathways for new low-income renters.